India has supplied Armenia with rocket launchers, the "Pinaka" multiple rocket system, and "Akash" surface-to-air weapons equipped with radar systems. This move by India has not only drawn justified discontent from official Baku as an attempt to alter the military balance in the South Caucasus but also introduced new negative dynamics into international relations. Therefore, the reasons behind India’s decision and its potential consequences must be carefully analyzed.
India's military support to Armenia can be explained by several key motivations. First and foremost, it is crucial to note that India acts with the ambition of becoming a "great power" in international relations. Setting aside its geographical and demographic conditions, this aspiration does not entirely align with India's actual capabilities. Nevertheless, by selling weapons to Armenia, India seeks to present itself as a new actor in the South Caucasus region. It also attempts to compete with regional powers by supporting Armenia, which has been officially declared to face the risk of strategic disintegration. This indicates that India’s influence on this region is part of its broader plans to strengthen its global standing, with arms supplies to Armenia serving as a means to this end.
France's influence in this matter is also evident. The India-France partnership is one of the primary factors driving India into the ranks of Armenia's patrons. It is no secret that France has long been one of Armenia's main supporters, and these ties could indirectly affect India's decisions. By providing missiles to Armenians, India aims not only to please France but also to court the "collective West," led by the United States.
However, the negative repercussions of this move are likely to be more significant for India.
The alignment with Armenia is fueled by India's regional tensions, particularly its escalating issues with Pakistan. By offering military support to Armenia, India amplifies the scale of discord in the region. Furthermore, India's actions could be interpreted as a response to China's growing economic influence in the region. India has consistently sought to capitalize on the West's increasing distrust of China. By trying to limit China’s influence in the South Caucasus, India aims to strengthen its own position. This rationale reaffirms that India's arms supply to Armenia is intended to garner Western support and present itself as an "alternative power" against China.
Finally, like France, India seeks to fill the void left by Russia's waning influence in Armenia, where anti-Russian sentiments are on the rise.
Of course, the economic aspects of arms exports should also be considered. India is the world’s second-largest arms importer and is actively searching for new markets in this sector. Armenia’s steps to reduce its military dependency on Russia present India with a new market opportunity.
However, the "Armenian market" jeopardizes prospects for peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus. Acquiring new weapons could enable Armenia to adopt a more aggressive stance, complicating the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Thus, instead of contributing to regional stability, India's actions may lead to greater instability.
But what about the philosophy of "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam"?
After all, India claims to adhere to the principle of "The World is One Family" and promotes itself to the international community as a country that fosters peace and cooperation.
Indeed, India's decision will have negative consequences for it in the long term, both regionally and internationally. First and foremost, the trust of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) countries, of which Azerbaijan is a prominent leader, in India will be undermined. The NAM promotes impartiality and principles of fair mediation in conflicts. Azerbaijan, being one of the leading nations in this movement, plays a pivotal role. India's military support to Armenia contradicts the goals and principles of the NAM, prompting official Baku to advocate for India’s exclusion from this platform.
Taleh SHAHSUVARLI